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Usd 259 Calendar 2024

Kristal

USD/JPY Forecast: Impact of Wage Talks on BoJ Policy Unfolds

With inflation in focus, consumer spending trends also need consideration. Upward trends in consumer spending could fuel demand-driven inflation. A higher-for-longer Fed rate path may reduce disposable income, curb consumer spending, and dampen demand-driven inflation.

Wichita Public Schools on X: "The Board has voted to approve the
Wichita Public Schools on X: “The Board has voted to approve the

Economists forecast retail sales to increase by 0.8% in February after falling by 0.8% in January.

Other stats include weekly jobless claims. However, barring an unexpected spike in jobless claims, the focus will be on producer prices and retail sales.

School Year Calendar -
School Year Calendar –

Short-term Forecast

Near-term trends for the USD/JPY will hinge on US data, wage negotiations in Japan, and the Bank of Japan. Weaker-than-expected US data and BoJ support for a pivot from negative rates could tilt monetary policy divergence toward the Yen. The wage report on Friday could be pivotal.

USD/JPY Price Action Daily Chart

The USD/JPY hovered below the 50-day EMA while remaining above the 200-day EMA, sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.

A breakout from the 50-day EMA and the 148.529 resistance level could give the bulls a run at the 151.685 resistance level. However, selling pressure could intensify at the 148.529 resistance level. The 50-day EMA is confluent with the resistance level.

BoJ reaction to wage negotiations and the US economic calendar need consideration.

Conversely, a USD/JPY drop below the 147.500 handle would bring the 145.891 support level and the 200-day EMA into play.

The 14-day RSI at 40.73 indicates a USD/JPY drop to the 145.891 support level before entering oversold territory.